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'A strategy on Somalia' &
Somaliland: Mail & Guardian
Since the routing this month of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC)
that ruled the country for six months, the main discussion has been about how
the African Union can put together an African force to maintain peace in the
Horn of Africa. Last week the AU's Peace and Security Council (PSC) approved a
plan to send 8 000 African peacekeepers to Somalia on a six-month mission.
But the central challenge for the AU is to bring the focus back to where it
belongs: finding a home-grown solution to the conflict.
The simple propping up of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG)
does not provide the answer. The reality is that there are three power centres
that require engagement: the TFG, which is backed by Ethiopia; the UIC,
supported by Egypt and Eritrea; and the unrecognised and peaceful Somaliland
republic in Hargeisa in the north.
While the UIC has been displaced, it has not been defeated. By its own
admission, it indicated that it was withdrawing temporarily from Mogadishu in
the face of the Ethiopian force and that it would opt for insurgency.
Fortunately, as the AU starts its annual summit this week, one of the UIC's key
leaders, Sheikh Sheriff Ahmed, has said that the withdrawal of Ethiopia would
put an end to these plans. Although it is unclear whether his views fully
represent the council, since most of the leadership is in hiding or
incarcerated, his pronouncements nevertheless are an indication that perhaps a
small window of opportunity exists to seek a broad-based solution.
Instead of concentrating on external tensions and military solutions, the
home-grown rebuilding of a state should be considered the prime task at hand. A
Centre for Policy Studies report points to two key elements that thus far have
not attracted major public attention.
Firstly, rebuilding a failed state requires acknowledgement of the existence of
clan tensions. Specialist John Drysdale calls for attention to be given to the
fact that there are two competing sub-clans, the Abgal and the Habar Gidir wings
of the Hawiye in Mogadishu. "Without reconciliation between the two major
sub-clans in Mogadishu, where a future central government for Somalia was
expected to be seated, any attempt at imposing an extrinsic national government
on top of unfriendly independent power bases supported by Ethiopia … was folly,"
said Drysdale.
Secondly, while southern Somalia is seen as a failed state, there is a part of
Somalia in the north — known as Somaliland — which enjoys a stable government. A
close examination of this experiment could point a way forward for all of
Somalia.
Somaliland has a democratically elected Parliament and president, a thriving
media and a home-grown economy. This has been accomplished by Somalians, with no
outside interference, and is proof that local people are in a position to
negotiate their own systems if left alone.
The leadership in Somaliland includes men and women committed to progressive
governance. This is very different from the extremist Islam espoused by the UIC.
Recent dismissive statements by TFG leaders about Somaliland have inflamed
public opinion, leading to huge demonstrations in Somaliland and calls for a war
to defend Somaliland's democratic gains. Since 1991, southern Somali leaders
with weak power bases have been unable to let go of Somaliland.
While empathetic to Somaliland's case of self-determination, South Africa is on
excellent terms with all regional state actors, is a leading member of the PSC
and has just taken up a two-year non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
It has welcomed the AU Commission's report on Somaliland. Consolidating
Somaliland's fledgling democracy in a troubled region and managing the
intractable anarchy in Somalia certainly represent serious challenges to the
credibility of the PSC.
South Africa is well positioned to discreetly and consultatively undertake a
diplomatic initiative that would work alongside an AU peace and training mission
focused on the development of a regional peace. It should also use its
experience to shift the focus of the Somali crisis to negotiations involving all
local leaders.
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Source: Mail & Guardian
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